Monday, November 15, 2010

A shares in November operating strategy

 Overall technical judged:
by domestic devaluation, inflation expectations, ample liquidity caused by the waves rise, the stock index, for example, is divided into two phases, namely, fell 10.07.02 10.04.14 Kaishi at Golden 0.382 of 2319 points, then 60 days to start the first phase of rebound and platform shocks, stronger than the stock index during the deep that shows the market too small subject shares, many stocks making new highs at this stage. The nature of the main stage technical rebound.
second phase began in the days before the National Day of 10.09.30, the way to massive blowout, continuous short squeeze, from the main stock index rose to the highest point on the lowest 2597 10.10.26 at 3073 points. this stage initiated mainly by the weight of blue-chip, anti-inflation and resource stocks led the gains, nonferrous metals, coal and other periodic plate risen dramatically, with less than 17 days to basically complete the first phase of the equidistant rose nearly 60 trading days. this stage funds for the unknown nature of the major breakthrough massive increase. Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes were to effectively break the long-term triangular shape, which broke through the stock index 3478-3319-3181 points posed by the downward pressure line. After three days of callbacks, the Friday is the lowest point of 2955 points after the break through pressure line position Withdrawing the support points.
So, A shares in November is a consolidation of the rise, or fall below pre-pressure line and comprehensive callback then?
a wave from 10.09.02 to buy at warehouse full of tips to do more to 10.10.20 day risk adjusted periodically prompted mainly based on technical patterns and indicators, and after the rate hike could face risks of sudden policy of comprehensive consideration. < br> The Bo 10.10.26 【index】 build colorful head of stock that, lack of up and up market will remain active. high level of technical indicators, the implied departure from the basic conditions for the establishment of the callback; the latter is taken into account after the flood of liquidity into the inevitable formation of the plate and wheeled compensatory growth stocks.
soaring stocks continued to back the current pre- stressed, in particular, pre-Hurricane heavyweight stock and line. So the yellow line, white line, is likely to remain for some time.
For these reasons, the wave of the overall expectations of November, the index is still to return to stressed that the main shock and consolidation, the test does not rule out the risk of short Zhang Yin (tape stock can hardly be spared if Zhang Yin). individual stocks discussed below.
on the rise since the 2319 points, belonging to rebound or structural Greater levels of the bull market trend or reversal of the bull market, a wave of cautious yet, no absolute judge. breakthrough in the line of the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices are, of course, is the bull market of the mark. However, the amount after blow to the risks and policies may change also reverse the market in a short time. Therefore, a wave of Geng willing to follow the market within the control to do more, while at the same Suishisuidi prevent risks, to maintain their profits.
summary of each sector index:
The following sections focus on the main wave of change:
1, banks, brokerages, insurance;
gold, nonferrous metals, coal, petroleum, machinery, automobile;
real estate, steel, building materials, cement , chemicals, pesticides and fertilizers;
electronic information, electronic devices, power generation equipment, instrumentation, transportation
biopharmaceuticals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries, commerce department stores, food industry, media and entertainment
2, while the concept of plate concern: the new energy, military space, things, smart grid, low-carbon economy and technology stocks on the whole.
part of the plate briefly Comments:
banks: not yet adjusted due, the current short of the main plate. However, the recent rebound is possible, sideways shock; which SPD, development, livelihood, CITIC, Bank, are likely to be stabilized in the plate. The fate of plates and real estate in it's own financing and asset risk present is still higher barriers. from a valuation point of view, are already very low, but the recent trend is still hard to be optimistic, and if the situation turns bad, do not rule out new lows. Right now the timing is still not fully Jiancang. but in the long term Look, the next wave of the plate leading position is very possible.
brokerage stocks: recent wave of magnitude larger than the gains. has received in the years near the line, from a technical point of view, will continue to be adjusted downwards. optimistic about the future of the plate wave of opportunity. especially the section leading CITIC, Hai Tong, sub-shares of China Everbright and investment.
insurance stocks: stocks of the plate three callback seven consecutive trading days, the main force for the recent short plate. banks to stabilize and then observe the intervention. choice is still the leading shares of Ping An.
gold stocks: 8 gold stocks, a wave of favorable re-leading the exercise price of gold hit a record high gold and Shandong Gold. from the international gold Price trend of view, there are still opportunities for the sector. However, the plate should not be heavily loaded, is hit and run short-term varieties.
color: recent Hurricane plates, index is high, species differentiation. pre-soaring stock should not intervene, section still underestimate the value of the stocks in particular continue to be times compensatory growth of new shares. Large species such as copper, aluminum, zinc, aluminum, etc., the latter may become the leading two waves, but not too high expectations.
Coal: Recent mad Biao plates, index is high. wave plates are not optimistic about the long-term trend. mainly the spot or whether the recent stock price of short-term overdrafts, short supply is expected to report a positive phase, if high index plate, but also leave the rallies to lighten up opportunities. but there are a few stocks worth tracking: 601088 China Shenhua, 000,723 Meijin Energy, two coking industry stocks 600,408 Aetna, 000,835 four-Chuan Shengda so, there is compensatory growth opportunities.
Oil: the plate more than a dozen stocks, the trend is still quite good, or not too high, and has just raised the price of oil. Sinopec and PetroChina rebound, broader market will have a major impact. This is the top of two giant aircraft carriers stuck with a heavy plate, You lifted shares listed on the amount of days, short-term can not expect continued strength. But from long-term point of view, have some investment value. currently focus on 002 221 East Energy, 000,096 Guangjunengyuan, 000,554 Taishan Petroleum, 601808 COSL.
Machine: This section has more than 100 stocks, Ushimata times out, there are many stocks have turned a few. At present there is some way of going Manniu,UGG boots cheap, some are ready to be played. the whole plate, the increase has been high but There are some upside, and individual stocks, the eyes fixed on the current wave of machine tools and heavy industry shares on a few.
car: from July bottom rise, automobile plate has been along the 20 line, shock upstream, the trend very robust. big bull stock rose more than 4 times four months of integration into the flight, two years of continuous Manniu up 6 times from Singapore, Malaysia car Dengjun the plate. in which 000,951 Chinese heavy truck heavy truck, stocks 000 572 new energy vehicles Haima Motor and so on, are probably out of the long-term Manniu market.
real estate: the plate was suppressed by the real market has not started. Dr. Paul Wanjin recent oversold bounce, has once again been suppressed. There are a number plate stocks,UGG boots, is still in the long-term repressed state. real estate taxes during the fall boots? predict a wave of bad market when it started, but once started, I believe that the same type with the impact of retaliatory blow. It is possible with the financial sector led the broader market final wave of attack.
wrote here, a wave of feeling a little to no time. in front of the main sections listed, there are a lot of good stocks to wait for mining, particularly with the country's new industrial policy of cheap stocks and small plates are not expected to significantly move up the high-Song Pei stocks. wave of willing in another paper symposium.
retail positions and operation:
10 market in full swing in January, 11 months is active in the broader market adjustment and stocks and compensatory growth period, which is another wave of basic judgments.
So, now look, there are still many San rise in public in this wave, earn the index does not make money, some of them struggling in some sort of relief edges. < br> Based on the broader market risk, stocks are very active in the state, a wave that most investors do not need to hurry do not dry With calm state of mind to deal with complex changes in the situation. in the position, the main positions remained at around four Daowu Cheng, shareholding plan for the year. plays into the half in the second position, the center line of the annual report intended for the remaining half used for the two as T +0, and 短炒, once that cash is king right. 25% -30% The preparation is absolutely necessary cash.
primary and secondary positions in shares of no more than three, small positions for primer positions, observation positions, a few more anyway.
In operation,UGGs, the selection of individual stocks to be in the first place,bailey UGG boots, if not every few days to select the operation, only in the stock price rose more than 30% for the first time to lock in some profits to lighten up, half down 50% on the position, with the withdrawal of funds other Jiancang potential shares.
pulled urgently on the overall increase of 50% (some individual stocks and sometimes only require a 20-30% up) need to lighten up certain stocks to lock in profits, so that the remaining number of shares to double pump is sufficient.
like the first wave of Shigekura, lighten up after the lock up, the rest is that they do not try for any of the Manniu crazy. This method is just one of many operating modes, each retail investors should be looking for their own positions and the operation !
11 月 expected to sum up:
market conditions in most cases is unpredictable. just a good attitude and method of operation for its discipline, is the stock guarantee of survival and profitability. November, bearish may not be short, to do more but to remain vigilant. tape can lighten up the area reach 3100 points, stand on the Masukura; callback section 2900 positions along the stroke can be cautious rebound, fell below 2890 points in line is strongly reduced to half The following positions. The emphasis on individual stocks do not forget the broader market, is defying the broader market because the stock market shock slowly callback, but if every Zhang Yin, or accelerate the decline, all stocks are not immune. 

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